Fun with Francs?
Confidence Interval Interpretations and Small Samples
Worksheet 19
1. Open the file CONFINT.XLS.

2. Move to the Exchange Rates sheet in this file. Column A (cells A2:A194) contains the population of exchange rates. Create a random sample of exchange rates in Column A of the Experiment1 Worksheet (starting in A4), use the sequence Tools Menu--Data Analysis--Sampling. In the sampling window designate the population location under the input range as A2:A194 (do not check labels). Record the sample size, n, number of samples under Random. Use n = 40. Finally under output range designate Experiment1!A4 as the destination. Click OK and move to the Experiment1 worksheet.

3. The random sample is in A4:A43. I programmed Excel to compute the confidence interval and relevant statistics after you designate the confidence level in D10. Start with an 80% confidence interval by typing 80 in D10. Record the limits of the confidence interval in the following table. Repeat this experiment (Steps 2 & 3) five times.

Confidence Level Interpretation Experiment

Trials

Lower Limit

Upper Limit

U = Contains m

1

 

 

 

2

 

 

 

3

 

 

 

4

 

 

 

5

 

 

 

4. The mean exchange rate is 5.10 franc/$. Place a check in the U column for all intervals that contain m. What percent of your intervals contain m? What percent of the class=s intervals contain m? Are these results reasonable? Explain.

5. Transfer to the Experiment2 worksheet. Only substitute values in the n, S, and Confidence Level columns (the other columns contain preprogrammed formulas).

a. Record the same S value and the same Confidence Level value for all 13 trials. Then type in 13 different n values in ascending order. What happens to the width of the confidence intervals as n increases? Explain the result intuitively. Show what happens in the confidence interval formula when n increases.

b. Repeat Part a with constant n and S for all trials, while Confidence Level increases.

c. Repeat Part a with constant n and Confidence Level for all trials, while S increases.

6. Repeat Experiment 1 (Steps 2-4) with n=10 and the Experiment3 worksheet. Is the population normal?