Suppose it is October 1, 1996 and your firm
finds that the finance department bought French francs when the firm accumulated
excess funds previously. A recent favorable business climate generated
additional excess cash flow, at least temporarily, and you want to make
a decision about the French francs. If the current exchange rate, 5.75
francs/dollar, is exceedingly favorable (francs are cheap--lots of francs
for each dollar), then you will buy more francs. If the exchange rate is
exceedingly unfavorable, then you will divest the firm of its current franc
balance. Suppose you consider "exceedingly favorable" conditions to exist
if the current exchange rate is larger than the mean rate over the last
three quarters (nine months). If neither of these situations exists, the
firm will invest elsewhere.
Use your sample of 36 daily exchange rates from
Worksheet 17 along with the statistics you computed to answer the following
questions.
1. Find a 95 confidence interval
for the mean exchange rate over the three quarter
period. Interpret
your answer.
2. Based on your answer to number
one and the current exchange rate, should the
firm purchase
more francs? Should it dispose of its current holdings of francs?
Should it invest
in other ways. Explain.
3. What risk does the company take
if it follows your decision? Can you put a value
on this risk
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